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Linda [12:18:13]>  Will go over structure as I see it and have been watching it
Linda [12:18:14]>  up now
Linda [12:18:22]>  short time frame showing red green red rule
Linda [12:18:39]>  morning has been filling out a range on the hourly charts
Linda [12:18:50]>  a b c up off last low on shortest time frame
Linda [12:19:32]>  1600 tick chart up now
Linda [12:19:39]>  (CQG)
Linda [12:19:53]>  red gren red rule is same as what we have for TS on the website
Linda [12:21:14]>  could make case for three waves down on the first move out of break of big picture support
Linda [12:21:27]>  but still clean downtrend on this 4000 tick  time frame
Linda [12:24:35]>  earlier in Open Forum
Linda [12:24:55]>  one of our resident market profile afficienados, mentioned  buy op in the CANADA
Linda [12:24:58]>  (freddy)
Linda [12:25:03]>  here is a chart of that
Linda [12:25:42]>  market traded down to top of previous day day support area, filled in the single prints
Linda [12:26:05]>  market profile shows levels differently  from bar charts sometimes....different feeling
Linda [12:31:12]>  Britich pound chart showing 15 and 30 minute
Linda [12:33:26]>  30
Linda [12:34:48]>  SP chart up
Linda [12:35:16]>  have said several times today we were looking for trading range to fill out on the hourly charts
Linda [12:35:19]>  here is why:
Linda [12:35:25]>  can see the 120 minute made new momentum lows
Linda [12:35:31]>  so was due for some consolidation
Linda [12:35:53]>  30 minute had grail sale from last night but SPs got retest down
Linda [12:36:09]>  so you can see the hourly chart now (lower left)
Linda [12:36:12]>  filling in range
Linda [12:36:39]>  there were "single prints"   (loose definition),
Linda [12:36:45]>  above 68.50 from early AM this morning
Linda [12:36:51]>  will show:
Linda [12:38:10]>  (1600 tick chart)
Linda [12:38:21]>  should be resistance area
Linda [12:54:27]>  DOW and SPs - resistance at 15 minute EMA
Linda [12:54:32]>  Russell on 15 minute power sell
Linda [12:54:58]>  Breadth -1600, VIX staying high
Linda [12:55:09]>  volume lighter then the last three days  (Friday)
Linda [12:55:16]>  but also why market staying in range.......
Linda [12:55:29]>  Yen on 30 minute Grail buy
Linda [12:55:49]>  (just fell short of EMA, actually, but should form bull flag up here)
Linda [12:56:24]>  LUNCTIME ON FRIDAY....
Linda [12:56:34]>  am goign to run through some power point slides very quickly
Linda [12:57:33]>  Will post complete set of slides to the bottom of the home page for you this weekend
Linda [12:57:40]>  QUICK REVIEW
Linda [12:57:43]>  WAVE STRUCTURE
Linda [12:57:49]>  chart on upper left shows uptrend
Linda [12:57:52]>  with A B C down
Linda [12:57:56]>  which is a POWER buy
Linda [12:58:06]>  you can see how that resolved itself  on middle chart
Linda [12:58:25]>  both of the middle charts were power buys (lower low in an up trend)
Linda [12:58:28]>  that resolved to upside
Linda [12:58:32]>  If the a b c down
Linda [12:58:37]>  FAILS to lead to a new leg up
Linda [12:58:41]>  and then turns down
Linda [12:58:48]>  you have TREND REVERSAL
Linda [12:59:13]>  those ABCs are the seet spot in the data
Linda [12:59:35]>  CURRENT STRUCTURE:
Linda [12:59:40]>  weekly russel
Linda [12:59:51]>  thee is a LOWER LOW AND a lower high
Linda [13:00:08]>  you can see how long the weekly uptrend has been intact
Linda [13:00:16]>  longer then the median duration for a bull move
Linda [13:00:22]>  the move is very mature
Linda [13:00:36]>  DAILY RUSSEL CHART
Linda [13:00:43]>  if the market takes out those august lows,
Linda [13:00:54]>  you will have a trend reversal on both the daily and the weekly charts
Linda [13:01:00]>  the first one in  over 4 years
Linda [13:01:04]>  at the points of trend reversal
Linda [13:01:11]>  you can have strong momentum move
Linda [13:01:40]>  so you need to be aware of the potential for huge downside, should those august lows go
Linda [13:01:50]>  also,
Linda [13:01:54]>  on the daily russell chart
Linda [13:02:04]>  you can get a feeling of the long sideways line that has formed
Linda [13:02:09]>  for the past YEAR
Linda [13:02:22]>  (sideways line = trading range)
Linda [13:02:34]>  move from that type of coild can lead to extended runs or momentum moves
Linda [13:02:45]>  again, market may trade in contained range for a while longer
Linda [13:02:59]>  be prepared if that low is taken out though
Linda [13:03:41]>  SP weekly chart:
Linda [13:03:49]>  has higher high, different structure
Linda [13:03:51]>  but
Linda [13:04:01]>  obvious test of old 2000 high
Linda [13:04:12]>  duration  of bull run quite mature
Linda [13:04:20]>  weekly transports:
Linda [13:04:21]>  lower high
Linda [13:04:30]>  last rally was so feeble it could not even turn green
Linda [13:04:52]>  had major DOW non confirmation  in that the Dow made new highs, utiltiies and transports did not confirm
Linda [13:05:02]>  here is a daily  chart of the transports
Linda [13:05:27]>  can see how the market went sideways instead of up
Linda [13:05:32]>  still in a range
Linda [13:05:48]>  if the august low is taken out, we will have trend reversal from up to down on the daily transports
Linda [13:05:57]>  again, same phenomna of LONG SIDEWAYS LINE
Linda [13:06:06]>  the longer the line, the bigger the trend move you can have out of that
Linda [13:06:19]>  Weekly utilities:
Linda [13:06:31]>  LOWER high, but strongest  for now (defensive play)
Linda [13:07:12]>  ray of hope for any bulls:  not ALL global indexes are rolling over yets n
Linda [13:07:28]>  brazil, overextended but still in uptrend
Linda [13:07:30]>  same with China
Linda [13:07:38]>  this was our FXI play
Linda [13:07:49]>  it hit lovely FIB level yesterday
Linda [13:08:10]>  (77 - 78 area)
Linda [13:08:30]>  Japan -  laggard,
Linda [13:08:33]>  still in uptrend but coil has formed
Linda [13:08:44]>  15 minute POWER SELL kicking in in SPs
Linda [13:08:47]>  Rus
Linda [13:09:04]>  15 minute negative on all indexes
Linda [13:09:46]>  can see chart up from before
Linda [13:10:11]>  back to power point
Linda [13:10:20]>  Dollar
Linda [13:10:23]>  weekly chart
Linda [13:10:27]>  everyone wants to pick a bottom
Linda [13:10:29]>  why?
Linda [13:10:38]>  first green UP on the weeklies is shorting op
Linda [13:10:51]>  Daily  Dollar chart
Linda [13:10:59]>  can see break from low vol point
Linda [13:11:02]>  descending wedge
Linda [13:11:24]>  breakouts from coils or low vol points with converging trendlineslead to momentum moves
Linda [13:11:25]>  trend moves
Linda [13:11:39]>  imagine first green blip UP on daily dollar chart
Linda [13:11:43]>  will be heck of  a shorting op
Linda [13:12:02]>  this was dollar hourly chart YESTERDAY
Linda [13:12:13]>  for short time frame players,   had testing action 
Linda [13:12:33]>  EC, BP.....sell divergences on 240/480 minute
Linda [13:12:45]>  CD made V spike
Linda [13:12:55]>  Can see how there will be POWER sell in the dollar thougoh on the intraday charts
Linda [13:14:04]>  Updated chart of dollar from yesterday
Linda [13:14:18]>  again, has not set up lower sell yet, strength in yen keeping it underwater
Linda [13:14:29]>  bit of roation with currencies
Linda [13:14:43]>  SI index
Linda [13:14:44]>  weekly
Linda [13:14:49]>  solid uptrend
Linda [13:14:52]>  pullbacks still buys
Linda [13:14:58]>  daily chart
Linda [13:14:59]>  overextended
Linda [13:15:02]>  but
Linda [13:15:12]>  check out the sideways line that the daily broke out from:
Linda [13:15:30]>  drawing that sideways line keeps things in perspective
Linda [13:15:35]>  not goign to fall straight back down
Linda [13:15:45]>  momentum move up  out of previous trading range
Linda [13:15:54]>  yesterday
Linda [13:15:56]>  chart of crude
Linda [13:16:08]>  had testing  on hourly crude and gold, etc
Linda [13:16:09]>  but
Linda [13:16:19]>  could see in advance how any push DOWN in crude would be POWER BUY
Linda [13:16:26]>  no trend reversal yet in hourly wave structure
Linda [13:16:37]>  so do not get reactive  on short side if crude looks weak,
Linda [13:16:45]>  it was a buying opportunity early this am
Linda [13:16:54]>  gold
Linda [13:17:01]>  maybe testing and filling out range
Linda [13:17:11]>  far from any process of trend reversal though on the hourly charts
Linda [13:17:38]>  if you want to get cute and make countertrend scalps in markets like these, keep in mind that they are scalps ONLY, not position trades
Linda [13:17:49]>  Copper
Linda [13:17:53]>  one of the weaker commodities
Linda [13:17:59]>  posted this trade to the room a few days ago
Linda [13:18:11]>  trend reversals are BEST when they are in a trading range
Linda [13:18:19]>  let me show:
Linda [13:18:29]>  (trend reversal is failed a b c wave, remember)
Linda [13:18:39]>  there is a b c down on 
Linda [13:18:41]>  120 minute?
Linda [13:18:47]>  I am not sure what time frame that is
Linda [13:18:52]>  shows up on daily though as well
Linda [13:19:20]>  market was trading in mid 340s a few days ago,
Linda [13:19:24]>  now trading at 314
Linda [13:19:39]>  we are stil short, seeing how close we can come to low on left side of the chart
Linda [13:19:45]>  Wheat
Linda [13:19:56]>  Daily chart still in uptrend
Linda [13:19:59]>  BUT
Linda [13:20:04]>  as of yesterday
Linda [13:20:14]>  still no support on hourlies which have been in steady DOWNtrend and
Linda [13:20:25]>  look at the trend reversal process on hourly wheat
Linda [13:20:33]>  VERY IMPORTANT to see how the a b c down
Linda [13:20:41]>  was in part of bigger trading range
Linda [13:20:56]>  curser is on low of the ABC
Linda [13:21:09]>  and you can see how there was trading to the left of this.....
Linda [13:21:10]>  see?
Linda [13:21:29]>  if you keep that in mind, it is going to keep you from looking for trend reversal on markets like crude or gold prematurely
Linda [13:21:42]>  when low of that a b c was taken out
Linda [13:21:47]>  (where cursor was)
Linda [13:21:53]>  market officially in downtrend
Linda [13:21:59]>  SPs crazy today, huh????!!!!
Linda [13:22:17]>  lighter volume onf friday - very whippy
Linda [13:22:24]>  Chart from yesterday
Linda [13:22:41]>  look at the COIL the market formed around that 1506 area
Linda [13:22:48]>  SO MANY TIMES the price traded through 1506
Linda [13:23:09]>  when that spring is srpung, you get the stronger momentum moves
Linda [13:23:19]>  and of course, coil from yesterday morning:
Linda [13:23:23]>  bingo
Linda [13:23:35]>  led to yesterdays trend move down
Linda [13:23:40]>  bingo
Linda [13:23:48]>  as last aside,
Linda [13:23:54]>  you can see the A B C consolidation
Linda [13:24:08]>  that the market made after the trend move down after that breakout from the coil
Linda [13:24:27]>  and what happened yesterday when the high of that a b c was taken back out again to the upside?
Linda [13:24:47]>  RIght -  trend reversal back UP on this time frame
Linda [13:25:01]>  move back to 1485,
Linda [13:25:08]>  previous "home" or value area
Linda [13:25:18]>  mid point of trading range or whatever you wish to call it
Linda [13:25:45]>  I use the red gren red rule to determine structure......
Linda [13:26:00]>  the amount of risk that you want to assume for your stop points should determine the time frame you look at
Linda [13:26:06]>  if you want tight risk,
Linda [13:26:13]>  then use shorter time frame for the A B C,etc
Linda [13:26:34]>  however,  you will not see good wave structure if you go down to TOO tight of a time frame,
Linda [13:26:40]>  because you will then be down in the noise
Linda [13:26:47]>  must stay out a time frame HIGHER then the noise
Linda [13:26:53]>  and the higher the time frame that you can go out to,
Linda [13:27:02]>  the cleaner the wave strcuture
Linda [13:27:14]>  thus, the higher time frames must always be your main roadmap
Linda [13:27:29]>  this concludes today's lunchtime presentation
Linda [13:27:31]>  :-)


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